I’ve been hearing a lot of hype around the Philadelphia Eagles running back (RB) Miles Sanders for the upcoming 2020 season.
The hype isn’t misplaced. Sanders, the former Penn State RB and Saquan Barkley’s prodigy, took advantage of the opportunity given to him in college the year after Barkley left for the NFL in 2018.
When Sanders was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft to the Eagles, he also took full advantage of his opportunities. Like when the Eagles were down most of their offensive weapons at the end of the 2020 season and they needed guys to step-up. During this time, he showed he could handle more of a workload, be a reliable guy iin the backfield as a runner, and be a reliable receiver as well. In all, he ended his rookie campaign with great numbers given the low number of attempts he had (Sanders rushed 179 times, for 818 rushing yds, 50 receptions and 6 total TDS).
Great numbers for a rookie no doubt!
So, has Sanders got talent?
Yes.
Is this enough to make him elite in terms of fantasy football?
No. Why?
It's simply because the Eagles won’t give him enough touches to make him elite.
The guys I would consider elite at this point in fantasy football are Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot, Panthers RB Christian McCafferey, Browns RB Nick Chubb, Saints RB Alvin Kamara, Titans RB Derrick Henry, and Giants RB Saquon Barkley.
But why are they elite?
It's not only because they have high average yards per carry (YPC), but they also get a large amount of rush attempts.
Just look at their rush attempt and receiving target numbers from 2019!
Christian McCafferey: 287 attempts (not to mention his 142 receiving targets!!)
Ezekiel Elliot: 301 attempts
Nick Chubb: 298 attempts
Derrick Henry: 303 attempts
Saquon Barkley: 217 ( this is low, but he was injured and out for 3 games)
Then we have Alvin Kamara. He doesn't follow this script like most of the other elite backs (other than McCafferey). However, like Miles Sanders coach Doug Pederson, Kamara's coach Sean Payton likes to limit his RBs attempts. The difference however, is Kamara has been more involved in New Orleans receiving game. So his reps as a receiving threat as well as a rusher are what what make him elite (In 2019 Kamara had 97 targets for 81 receptions and was given 171 rush attempts, this was also while being injured last season).
So as you can see, all these elite running backs are getting a lot of attempts. Nearly all of them are at the 300 mark with rushes by themselves.
So, could the Eagles do this for Miles Sanders and give him 300 rushing attempts in a single season?
Yes!
Unfortunately, the past stats have shown that’s not how the Eagles under Doug Pederson like to play.
This is because the Eagles are a running back by committee team! Meaning, they spread out their carries amongst all the RBs on their team, or at least the ones they deem startable or usable.
For the Eagles this has been happening since the last year Andy Reid was HC of the Eagles in 2015 where DeMarco Murray was given 191 carries and continued when Doug Pederson was made Head Coach in 2016.
Since then, all the Eagles main RBs rushing attempts have all been about the same. If you don’t believe me here are the last 4 years of what the main Eagles RBs have been given in terms of carries under coach Doug Pederson:
2016- Ryan Mathews 155 rushes
2017- Legarrette Blount 173 rushes
2018- Josh Adams 120 rushes *lot of injuries this yr
2019- Jordan Howard 119 rushes/ Miles Sanders 179 rushes
As you can see none of the Eagles Main RBs have been given over 200 rushing attempts since Doug Peterson was made the Head Coach of the Eagles.
Hey, it’s not the worst system to use! (Especially in NFL standards)
This is because this approach allows teams offenses to not only give their main RBs rest, fresh legs throughout every game, and give other players more game reps, but also allows the offense to specialize players for certain roles to play in necessary situations.
For the Eagles, their RB roster includes Miles Sanders as the Main RB, Boston Scott as the recieving RB/ speed RB, Corey Clement as the utility RB, and Elijah Holyfield as the bulkier RB.
So will Sanders have an Elite fantasy season in 2020?
I don’t think so.
But that doesn’t mean he’s not going to improve!
Overall, since he is clearly the best RB on the team and the Eagles go to RB, I see Sanders getting over 1,000 yds next season.
Unlike a lot of other experts, I don’t see Sanders as a top 10 RB.
However, because of his skill and how I’m betting the Eagles will give him around 205 rushes this season, I see him as a top 15 RB in Fantasy. Sanders will have a season comparable to the Baltimore Ravens RB, Mark Ingram next season, but with more receptions.
For fantasy, definitely look for him as a a good RB2 next season for standard leagues and an even better RB2 for PPR leagues.
2020 stat prediction:
205 rushes, 1,050 rushing yds, 50 receptions, 500 yds 11 Total TDs (8 ruTDs, 4 recTDs)
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