Should you draft Julio Jones in Fantasy Football now that he is on the Titans?
News Recap:
One of the biggest news stories around the NFL in the month of June was that the Atlanta Falcons star wide receiver (WR) Julio Jones and a 2023 sixth-round pick were traded to the Tennessee Titans for a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round pick.
This was a huge storyline because Jones was and still is considered one of the best WRs in the NFL and has only played with the Falcons over his 10 years of experience in the league.
Returning for his 11th season in the NFL, Jones will be joining a talented group of offensive playmakers on the Titans roster including:
(QB) Quarterback, Ryan Tannehill
(RB) Running back, Derrick Henry
(WR) Wide Reciever, AJ Brown
In recent years for Fantasy Football drafts, Jones has been considered a top-tier player at his position. But considering his change of team, his age, his health, and the players and coaching around him on the Titans, does Jones still have value in Fantasy Football at his current ADP?
Should you draft Julio Jones in a 12 team league at his current average draft position (ADP) of 4.09 (the 9th pick of the fourth round)?
Bullseye Fantasy Answer:
Yes, you should draft him.
The reasons you should draft Jones at his current ADP are because (1) he has been one of the most consistent and reliable WRs in the National Football league, (2) he’s going to a team with a lot of targets available for him, and (3) with their new Offensive Coordinator (OC) I’m expecting the Titans Offense to slightly increase their air game.
Reason 1: Julio Jones is Consistent
Over his 10 year span in the NFL with the Falcons, Julio Jones has averaged 132 targets, 15.2 yds per reception, 1,289 rec yds, & 6 TDs a season with a career catch percentage of 64.2%.
According to CBS Sports, Jones has averaged more than 100 yards per game in five consecutive seasons which is the most in NFL history. Plus, his 95.5 lifetime receiving yards per game are the most by any player in NFL history (nine yards higher than second-place Calvin Johnson).
Having a new QB in Ryan Tannehill will not change his consistency as a clutch player either. However, expect Jones’ overall use to go down as a Titan.
This is not because Tannehill is a bad QB (He has had his highest QB 110 rating, lowest interception percentage (1.7%), and highest TD percentage (7.2%) in his 2 years with the Titans) or because they don’t think Jones is a talented player. This has more to do with how the Titans prioritize running the football in their offense.
EX: Last season Titans RB Derrick Henry ran 378 times for over 2,000 yds and 17 TDs.
Reason 2: Titans Targets
Last season, the Titan’s main receiving threats who combined for 81.6% (382) of the teams (468) total targets (tgts) were WRs AJ Brown (106 tgts/ 22.6%), Corey Davis (92 tgts/ 19.6%), and Adam Humphries (35 tgts/ 7.5%) as well as (TE) Tight Ends Jonnu Smith (65 tgts/ 13.9%) and Anthony Firkser (53 tgts/ 11.3%) and RB Derrick Henry (31 tgts/ 6.7%).
But because of the Titans personnel changes in 2021 where WR Corey Davis (Jets), TE Jonnu Smith (Patriots), and WR Adam Humphries (Washington Football Team) all left for different organizations, the Titans are currently sitting with 41% of the teams’ total targets (191) up for grabs.
This means if the Titans throw roughly the same amount as they did the year before, there should be 191 targets available to be spread around.
I expect the targets to be spread out like so:
AJ Brown: +20 Targets
Julio Jones: 112 Targets (Davis’ 92 tgts +20))
Anthony Firkser: +10 Targets
Josh Reynolds: 45 Targets (Humphries 35 tgts +10)
Derrick Henry: +4 Targets
With Jones taking over the role former Titan and current NY Jets WR Corey Davis had (92 targets last season), I see Jones getting 112 targets or all of Corey Davis’ targets +20 more.
In general, expect Jones to get at least 110 receptions to 135 at the most. This is because not only will Jones be looking to take all of Davis’s old targets but to take a load from Jonnu Smith’s target share as well as a 10 target increase due to the increase in the number of games this season (from 16 to 17 games).
Even though Jone’s target share will be lower than what he was used to seeing on the Falcons, it should be sustainable enough for him to still have a good season in fantasy.
Reason 3: Coaching
Titans TE coach last season, Todd Downing, will be stepping into the new role of OC for the Titans this season.
Via ESPN, Downing “aims to maximize offense, not fill Arthur Smith's (Titans former OC) shoes”.
By maximizing offense, I feel this means he will try to utilize their entire offense more than they had last season, which to me infers they will be throwing the ball more and letting their receiving weapons get more action than they did last season(Julio Jones, AJ Brown, Anthony Firkser, etc.).
I say this because when Downing was the OC for the Raiders back in 2017, The Raiders offense threw 558 attempts (90 more than the Titans did in 2020) while still managing to run the ball 342 times.
Derrick Henry will still be fed the ball a lot this year, but I do see the Titans offense taking more chances downfield (I would expect at least 40 more pass attempts than last season) and I think it’s because they know they now have the talent in terms of their WR weapons to do so.
Health & Age factor:
No surprise Jones is getting older (he’s 32 years old), but should this deter you from drafting him?
No.
To compare, look at what Larry Fitzgerald was doing when he was considered “too old”.
In Larry’s 12th through 14th season he was killing it, averaging 108 rec, 1,131 rec yds, and 7 TDs a season in that time frame.
Julio isn’t Larry, but he looks to be in as good of shape if not better than him around the same age, so I wouldn’t worry about that too much.
In terms of Jones health, before 2020 where he missed 7 games, in the previous 6 seasons, Jones had only missed 4 games.
So 2020 was indeed an outlier for Jones, but if a franchise like the Titans (who has traded picks and is paying Jones $15.2 million) is confident Jones will stay healthy (via PFT), then I think you should have confidence in his ability to stay healthy too.
In an interview by NBC Sport PFT, when Jones was asked about his health he stated “There’s a lot still left in the tank” as well as “For those questioning my health, stay tuned”.
Julio Jone’s Fantasy Stats Prediction:
78 receptions and 1,194 yds, and 7 TDs in 2021.
PPR Leagues: 14 points per game
Standard Leagues: 9.8 points per game
I’d rather draft Julio Jones over these WRs (PPR and STND leagues):
Adam Thielen
Cooper Kupp
Kenny Golladay
Mike Evans
If you have any questions or comments about this topic or others like it, feel free to message @bullseyefantasy on twitter or send an email to Bullseyefantasy1@gmail.com