A recent tweet by NFL Rumors Twitter Account (@NFLrums) quotes the Carolina Panthers QB, Sam Darnold, as "confident" that he could be one of the best QBs in the NFL this season.
What can I say, Sam's got confidence in himself.
That's a good thing. Everyone should exude confidence in themselves.
Am I confident that Sam Darnold will be one of the best QBs in the National Football League?
Absolutely not.
What Sam really should be saying is that he is "confident" that he could stay in the league as a backup QB.
Now that I would agree with.
This is because he really hasn't shown anything in his four years in the NFL as a starter that he truly deserves to be considered a top QB.
If anything he needs time to sit behind a great QB like Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers to learn and wait his turn so that maybe if he's lucky, he can turn into a Kirk Cousins.
But maybe I was over thinking this when I read it. Maybe people like me who read this think "top QB in the NFL" means top 10 guy. When really to him a top QB in the NFL means he is a top 25 QB or even a top 32 QB.
In reality a top 25 or 32 of anything isn't that bad. Such as Top 25 restaraunts in the United States or Top 32 swimmers in College. However, considering there are 32 active NFL teams this would be horrible.
If this is indeed his thought process, as long as he starts on an NFL team he could consider himself one of the best QBs in the NFL because truthfully, you do need to show some talent and skill to play regularly at that level.
His stats certainly don't show him as one of the best QBs in the league. Have a look for yourself.
Year | Games Started | Record | Passing Yards | TDs | INTs | QBR |
2018 | 13 | 4-9-0 | 2865 | 17 | 15 | 45.9 |
2019 | 13 | 7-6-0 | 3024 | 19 | 13 | 45.6 |
2020 | 12 | 2-10-0 | 2208 | 9 | 11 | 32.9 |
2021 | 11 | 4-7-0 | 2527 | 9 | 13 | 33.2 |
Career | 49 | 17-32-0 | 10624 | 54 | 52 | ​ |
Out of a solid sample size of nearly 50 starts he has:
A win percentage of 0.346
He has only eclipsed 3,000 passing yards once
Has only 1 winning season as a starting QB (not a winning season as a team)
54 TDs and 52 INTs... Nearly a 1:1 Touchdown to Interception ratio over a 4 year period (2 times his INTs exceeded his TDs Yikes)
He has averaged a total QBR of 39.4 which is bad considering the Best QBs every season score around 78 to 89. (If you're bad at math that's a difference of nearly 40 to 50 points more than Darnold has averaged)
Overall, Sam should be confident in himself because he litterally is going to need every ounce of confidence in himself to prove to the coaches, GMs, fans, and himself that he could actually be a reliable starting QB for an NFL team.
I will give him the benefit of the doubt, because he has been on arguably the worst teams in the NFL the last few seasons (NY Jets and Carolina Panthers). Plus he hasn't exactly been healthy the whole time either (MONO).
However, we live in a world where you only get so many excuses and 2nd chances and this could be close to his last one.
Considering his team and the players he has around him such as a hopefully a healthy Christian McCaffrey (RB), DJ Moore (WR), and Robby Anderson (WR). This team has some talent to work with.
If Sam can't pull together at least a 9-9-0 season, or even 3 wins in his first 6 games I think his career as a starter in the National Football League is DONE ZO.
In Fantasy Football terms: I would not draft Sam Darnold. I don't consider him a fantasy starter. I might consider him as an interesting backup, but I would definitely rather have a lot of other guys over him. He is a 3rd string QB in fantasy. Unless you are in a 32 person league or are completely out of options, I wouldn't take him.