Las Vegas Raiders Running Back (RB), Josh Jacobs, will be headed into his third season in the NFL.
Fantasy Football wise, Jacobs has been a solid draft pick for fantasy football owners in his first two years in the league. Jacobs has shown improvements in the number of Touchdowns (TDs), carries, Receiving yards, and receptions he has had from year 1 to year 2.
Why is Josh Jacobs value falling in fantasy?
With the recent addition of Free Agent RB Kenyan Drake to the Raiders as well as the departure (via trades) of three of the Raiders best O-lineman (RT-Trent Brown — Patriots; G-Gabe Jackson — Seattle Seahawks, C- Rodney Hudson — Cardinals) there has been a lot of talk about downgrading Jacobs dynasty value as well as his draft stock in redraft leagues for the 2021 season.
Right off the bat, you have to admit this is logical thinking… I mean, why should anyone have high expectations for a RB in fantasy who has just had their Offensive line dismantled in front of them and then had another talented RB from Free Agency be added to their team right afterwards?
Am I worried about his value moving forward?
Not really…
Yes, the Raiders brought in another RB. But am I really expecting Drake to take over now just because he was added to the team? I’m certainly not. Jacobs is still the Raiders guy who they have been all in on over the past two years. The fact that in 2020 Jacobs (273 carries) was third in attempts behind Derrick Henry (378 carries) and Cook (312 carries) says that.
The only real reason they brought Drake on was because he’s a receiving threat… It was even reported by NBC Sports Edge Football that the “Raiders (are) planning to use Kenyan Drake at WR” (via @NBCSEdgeFB on Twitter).
Is this worrisome for Jacobs value in PPR (points per reception) leagues?
Well, I don’t think it will help, but I also think it won’t hurt either. That’s because Jacobs was never really getting that many receptions on the Raiders to begin with (20 in 2019; 33 in 2020) and it doesn’t look like they want that to change either.
Will Jacobs get less carries next year?
He will, But I don’t think it will be as much as you think.
Given his workload over the past two seasons (242 carries in 2019 and 273 carries in 2020), I highly doubt the Raiders will give Jacobs anything less than 230 carries. Even when Devontae Booker, Theo Riddick, and Jalen Richard were given the ball, compared to Jacobs 273 carries the Raiders only gave Booker 93 carries, Richard 22 carries, and Riddick 6 carries. So, I do expect Drake will essentially be Booker’s replacement and that he will have a similar role to the one he had in Miami where he averaged around 83 carries a season with a high of 133 carries and low of 33. And if we assume the Raiders run the ball 400 times next season, and give Drake 120 carries, Richard 30, and Riddick 10, that’s still 240 for Jacobs.
Also, just because they have another talented back on the team doesn’t mean both of them can’t have a great season either. Look at Cleveland with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Everyone thought them splitting carries would never work out for fantasy owners, but Chubb and Hunt (Hunt especially in PPR) are two of the best RB’s to own in Fantasy (both finished as top 15 Fantasy Backs in 2020) and in my opinion are the best RB’s to handcuff in 2021.
So, we have definitely seen two baller RBs on the same team work out for fantasy owners … I’m not saying it will work like this for both Drake and Jacobs on a team like the Raiders, but it’s definitely nice to know. I do think Jacobs has the upside over Drake at least in standard leagues.
Now, the Raiders still have an undeniable issue with their lineman simply because they went from one of the best Offensive lines (O-lines) in the league to having a mediocre one at best right now.
As we saw with the Bengals, having no O-line to work with really did affect RB Joe Mixon in 2020 (he put up his worst rushing numbers in his NFL career in 2020). So, it’s no secret Offensive lines matter in the NFL and they are difference makers. However, the good news is it is still early and the Raiders have time to pull some strings to possibly add a guy from Free Agency as well as draft a few lineman in the upcoming draft.
The Verdict:
Overall, I think Jacobs will still be a solid draft pick in fantasy.
I still believe Jacobs will still get a majority share of the touches, likely (18–20 a game) and will still be the Raiders TD guy in the Endzone. The Raiders are still a heavy run team (Raiders ran the ball nearly 400 times last season) where Jacobs has been their bell-cow back (273 attempts, 1060 yds, 12 TDs) and I’m not expecting that to change just because they added Drake. Plus, given the state of their weapons on the outside (Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfroe, John Brown, and now Drake), I am positive that Jacobs will not be completely ruined this season and teams won’t stack the box on him too often.
As for his standings in fantasy, I’m not sure where is ranked on most “experts” draft board’s at the moment, but if you can get Jacobs in the fourth round or later…to me that is a great value.
I can’t say I would pick Jacobs as my RB1 in fantasy or to even finish in the top 6, but I can see him finishing top 10 or right outside of it in standard leagues which would make him a decent RB2 and an even better flex play to draft. In PPR, given Drake as the receiving threat, I see him as a low RB2, decent flex play.
Josh Jacobs 2021 projections: 240 carries, 1,100 ruyds; 25 receptions, 150 reyds, 10 total TDs (9 rushing TDs, 1 receiving TDs)
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