This post is the second part of my 3 part series post on my top 15 Fantasy Football running backs (RBs) for 2018, explaining who I consider to be 10th-6th on my top 15 list. In my last post, I explained which fifteen RBs were at the bottom of my top 15 RBs list for 2018 (my 15th-11th RBs). A recap of that list is:
15. Derrick Henry
14. Kenyan Drake
13. Devonta Freeman
12. Christian McCaffrey
11. Jordan Howard
*If this is the first time seeing my RB (15-11) list and you would like to know more about why I have these players ranked in this order feel free to check out my last post: Who are my Top 15 Fantasy Football Runningbacks for 2018 Part I
10. (Tie) Dalvin Cook & Saquon Barkely 9.Melvin Gordon
8.Lesean McCoy
7.Kareem Hunt
6.Leonard Fournette
Starting off from number 10, it's a tie! The tie is between the 2nd year RB from the Minnesota Vikings, Dalvin Cook and the New York Giants 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, rookie Saquon Barkely! I'll split this one into two sections for your convenience.
Before I talk about Barkely, lets talk about Cook. Dalvin Cook was a rookie last year for the Vikings and was off to a great start. According to ESPN, Cook had 354 yards rushing and 2 Touch downs on 74 carries and 11 receptions for 90 yards in his first 4 games! He was averaging 4.8 yards a carry which is 88 yards a game. These are great stats for the first four games. However, there aren't any more stats because he injured his knee in the 4th game of the season against the Lions and was out for the rest of the season. This is a problem, not only because we didn't see how he would handle the later games in the season, but also because this definitely means he is prone to injury which brings down his value. You might be asking yourself right now, "If we didn't see him play the entire season and he has only played four games why is Dalvin Cook in your top 10?" Well, I have him at my number 10 spot because I believe that he will be healthy this next year and will still be in the same position when he left it as lead back for the Vikings . When you think about it as a hypothetical, if he would have played all 16 games, Cook was on pace to Rush 296 times, for 1,416 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns and catch 44 passes and 360 recieving yards (probably more TDs than this too). He would have been first in the league in rushing with those numbers. Unfortunately, this didn't happen and is only a what if or what could have been which is a huge reason why I can only put him at number 10 and not higher up. To be honest, this might be too high for him, but it also could be too low. Since this list isn't about how players did in the past, but about how players will do in the foreseeable future I have confidence that he will be a top 10 RB this year. There are certainly other players who have shown me they have what it takes to be in this spot, but because of the way he played in his first four games I can see the potential to be a top 5 RB is there which was enough for me to place him as the number 10 RB in Fantasy football for the 2018 season. (Prediction: 260 attempts, 1,100 rush yards 10 ruTDs; 50 receptions, 350 receiving yards, 3 reTDs.)
Still on number 10, lets talk about Saquon Barkely. You might be thinking "Shouldn't Barkely be ranked higher than this? He was so awesome in college and all the other analysts say he is going to do really well." Well, first off that is not always a given. I think people feel pressure to have him be a top 5 runningback for this year, but I couldn't give him anything under 10. Why you ask? Like I've said before in my last post, this year is pretty deep for elite running backs. I couldn't risk giving a rookie a spot where I know other players have actually done top quality running in the NFL. Rookies can be unpredictable. However, he has proven himself to be athletic and he looks like he is built for the NFL ("Saquad"), I've read that the Giants will be feeding him the ball a lot this season, and the Giants have been trying to upgrade their Offensive line this offseason too which was a huge problem for them last season. The O-line situation is probably still going to be a problem area for him, because it's pretty hard to run on a defense with no blockers (just ask Too Gurley in his 2nd season on the Rams), but who knows maybe they will be better. So in all, there are definitely a lot of positive vibes coming from him and the Giants organization for this season which is good for Barkely in terms of Fantasy purposes. I would hope he lives up to expectations, but I guess we shall just have to wait and see.( Prediction: 250 attempts, 1,050 rush yards, 8 ruTDs; 35 receptions 400 yards receiving, 1 reTD).
Melvin Gordon is my number 9 RB for the 2018 season. Gordon was off to a slow start to his career on the Chargers, but managed to pull himself out of it by working really hard and by having an upgraded offensive unit. This past season, he finally ran over 1,000 yards rushing for 1,105 yards after his heartbreaking 2016 season of rushing for 997 yards. Over the past three years he has truly been getting better as a RB every year hitting personal bests in rushing yards (1,105), receiving yards (476), receptions (58), receiving TDs (6), less fumbles (1), and carries (284) this past season. He is truly a solid RB and I expect to see even more from him if not the same production as last year. He has some injury concern, but I still think he will do well this upcoming year. (Prediction: 290 attempts, 1,150 rush yards, 10 ruTDs; 60 receptions, 475 yards).
Bills RB, LeSean McCoy is my number 8 RB for 2018. The Bills are getting better every year. Things are more on the level of rebuilding stage this year just because they have two new QBs to the team and have a lack of receivers. However, what they definitely have is a really solid offensive line and a fantastic RB in Shady McCoy. He might be a little older than the others in this list, but I don't see that stopping him from having another great season. Well, actually I guess it could, but that's only because he is still kind of injury prone. If you look at his statistics ** we can see that their are only 3 years in his 9 year career where he didn't have over 1,000 yards rushing. His rookie year 2009 (637 yards), his 4th year on the Eagles in 2012 he was injured (840 yards), and in his first year on the Bills in 2015 he was injured again (895 yards). Both times he was injured he still played 12 games and ran for over 800 yards, which is pretty solid. So even when he has gotten injured he still has gotten you some production as a runner. Even though he was injured in his final game of the year last season (in the first game of the playoffs vs the Jaguars which definitely is something to keep in mind), he should have another great season if he is healthy. This is especially with having new QBs on the team. I think in the beginning of the year they will play rather conservative and feed McCoy the ball a lot. (Prediction: 300 attempts, 1,280 rush yards, 8 ruTds; 45 receptions, 410 receiving yards, 3 reTDs)
Next at number 7, I have the Cheifs RB, Kareem Hunt. Wait, Kareem Hunt? He was the leading rusher last season, how could you have him at 5th! He should be in your top 5. As well as he did last season, I just think other RBs are going to do better. I will say he did have a phenomenal start to the season and he did have as many 100 yard rushing games as Todd Gurley did last year. However, I think this season and last season will be very different for him and the Chiefs. Last year Hunt had Alex Smith throwing him the ball, this season he has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball who is only a second year QB. I think this could mean the chiefs play more conservatively and run the ball with Hunt a lot (which is good for him), but this will also mean the Chiefs will be more predictable. I'm not saying he isn't going to do well, but I think last season after his really fast start to the season, and I don't see him having that fast of a start again. This doesn't mean he still can't rush over 1,300 yards again. I just think it will be more like 1,150. On the other hand, I think he will have more receiving yards next year because I think he will be a easy target for Mahomes to throw to. He was good enough to be the top rusher last season, so I think this is still a reasonable spot for him. He won't have the same season as last year, but I think it will still be good enough for him to be a top 10 RB. (Prediction: 300 attempts, 1,150 rush yards, 9 ruTDs; 60 receptions, 550 receiving yards, 3 reTDs).
Lastly, at number 6 I have Leonard Fournette. Last year, nobody knew how good Jacksonville was going to be. Same thing with Leonard Fournette. There were a lot of skeptical people, not sure if Leonard would succeed in the NFL. Well in my book he did, and really he could have done even better. In his rookie year Fournette ran for 1,040 yards on 268 carries and 9 TDs with 36 receptions for 302 receiving yards and 1 TD in 13 games. That's really solid work for him. He was truly a work horse last year averaging 20 carries and 80 rushing yards a game last season. In my opinion he could have done even better too. However, the problem with him was injuries. He was prone to them in college and he was again in the NFL. Two of the three games he missed last season were due to injuries, the other was not showing up on time to practice or something stupid like that. So yes he needs to mature more and learn how to do enough but not too much extra stuff every time he runs (meaning no more twists and spins). If he can just run hard and angry like he usually does without all the spins and extra stuff to prevent all of his injuries he can and will easily be a top 5 RB in the future if not this year, but for now he stands as my number 6 RB. (Prediction: 280 attempts, 1,250 rush yards, 11 ruTDs; 35 receptions 350 receiving yards 2re TDs).
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